The Federal Government is studying worst case scenarios for an avian flu pandemic, and the numbers are startling: as many as 92 million Americans infected with the virus (about 1/3 of the population), hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths, and an economic impact that could reach upwards of 700-billion dollars. Not exactly chicken feed.
In places where avian flu has broken out in the human population, the mortality rate has been an astonishing 50-percent. To date, those outbreaks have occurred largely in places with poor access to medical care and among populations in which some of the victims had underlying health issues that weakened their ability to fight off the illness.
In America, the mortality rate wouldn't reach anywhere near 50-percent. The worst pandemic in history, the 1918 Spanish flu, had a mortality rate of 2.5-5.0 percent. But that will be cold comfort to the 5 million Americans who could die. Make no mistake, a flu pandemic is potent: AIDS killed 25 million people in its first 25 years - the Spanish flu pandemic killed 25 million people in just 6 months.
So now consider the places you will not go and the things you will not do if there is a major outbreak in North America, and you'll get a sense of how the economy could be devastated. Will you send your children to school? Will you go to a workplace where 1 in 3 people is infected? Will you go to a mall, a stadium, a movie theatre, a restaurant, or get on a plane? In short, will you go anywhere large numbers of potentially infected people gather?
Even if you do venture out, what will you find? Grocery store shelves will likely be empty as trucking and transportation grinds to a halt. As delivery systems falter, gasoline, home heating oil, and raw materials for industry will become scarce. Looting could follow, martial law might be imposed.
Granted, this is a doomsday scenario, but there are enough serious scientists sounding the alarms that we should at least take notice. The US Government has admitted it is unprepared for a pandemic and is now scrambling to find flu vaccine and other resources in the event of an outbreak. Stockpiling of food is being recommended. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson is telling companies to prepare for pandemic flu the way they would for a blizzard - not for 3 or 4 days, but for an 18-month blizzard!
Personally, I'm not hitting the panic button just yet. I don't plan on locking my doors, eating canned goods, and fending off the neighbors. Nor do I think it's time to take all the money out of the bank and stuff it in the mattress. But I do think it's important to take all the above facts into consideration. This may be the one time Chicken Little is right.
